Murky Tides: Improving NATO's Defensive Posture in the Black Sea Basin

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Abstract:

Since Russia annexed Crimea and its war of aggression against Ukraine, the security environment of the Black Sea has undergone significant changes. The increased Russian military presence in the Black Sea basin has posed a challenge to NATO's strategic interests, including energy security and the preservation of free navigation. This policy-focused article examines ways to enhance trilateral cooperation in the Black Sea region among the three NATO littoral states--Romania, Türkiye, and Bulgari--to counter Russian influence. This influence has been a relatively overlooked aspect of NATO's strategic concerns, which has yet to produce a comprehensive strategy for the region. Greater trilateral cooperation among NATO members with coastal access to the Black Sea is envisioned as a step towards the development of a NATO Black Sea strategy and the potential creation of a joint fleet. The three countries have already launched successful initiatives, such as the establishment of MCM Black Sea in January 2024, which serves as a platform for collaborative maritime demining in response to the Russian-Ukrainian war. This article aims to untangle the complexities of expanding NATO's presence in the Black Sea basin and offers recommendations for both domestic and international policies to advance NATO’s strategic objectives.