Context Scenarios in Long-Term Defense Planning
Publication Type:Journal Article
Source:Information & Security: An International Journal, Volume 23, Issue 1, p.62-72 (2009)
Keywords:context scenario, Long-term defense planning, morphological analysis, planning methodology, robustness, scenario-based planning, system analysis, uncertainty.
Recently, a team of Bulgarian analysts proposed a novel long-term planning methodology that envisions a scenario-based, concept-driven, and capabilities-oriented planning process intended to provide for robustness in an uncertain security and force development environment. The methodology uses two types of scenarios – context scenarios (or “alternative futures”) and situational scenarios. This article presents a process for designing context scenarios and a summary information on the scenarios developed for use in Bulgaria’s long-term planning process. The proposed approach to the development of context scenarios involves five distinct steps – preparation, strategic base analysis, analysis of the characteristics of the future, definition of national security interests’ zones, and development and analysis of context scenarios. A specialized software tool called Intelligent Scenario Computer Interface Program Morphological Analysis/ System Analysis (I-SCIP-MA-SA) was developed to support both the morphological and system analyses within the process.