Metodology for Scenario-Based Planning of the National Defence System's Wartime Capabilities

On the request of Bulgaria's Ministry of Defence, the Centre for Security and Defence Management elaborates a methodology for capabilities planning under deep uncertainty. To represent uncertainty, the methodology utilizes two levels of scenarios - context scenarios (or 'alternative futures') and planning, or 'situational' scenarios, then used to derive capability requirements and readiness levels. A key feature of the methodology is the use of an expanded capability portfolio by adding to traditional capability taxonomies capability groups for "Awareness" and "Agility" of the national defence system. The team recommends a streamlined interagency process for assignment of capability targets, implementation and oversight. It also provides a number of document templates and recommends forms of public-private partnership.